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Ajax are the team most likely to win the Europa League, that’s according to data analysts who have worked out the chances of the 32 teams left in the competition.
Manchester United dispatched AZ Alkmaar 4-0 and Arsenal drew 2-2 with Standard Liege on Thursday, meaning both sides finished top of their groups and will avoid some of the biggest teams left in the competition in the last 32, when it’s drawn on Monday.
However despite that neither team is expected to win Europe’s secondary club competition, according to the science bods at Five Thirty Eight.
According to their data United have an 8% chance of winning the tournament, leaving them joint second, and Arsenal are down at just 4%, with Ajax favourites with a 9% chance.
Going into the last round of Group games in the Champions League Ajax were expected to make it through to the last 16, as they led going into Matchday Six.
Their 1-0 loss at home to Valencia, coupled with Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Lille, saw them drop into third and out of the competition that they reached the semi-finals of last season.
They are one of the two teams who dropped down into the Europa who are in the top seeds and as such their potential next round opponents are APOEL, Bayer Leverkusen, CFR Cluj, Club Brugge, Copenhagen, Eintracht Frankfurt, Getafe, Ludogorets, Olympiacos, Rangers, Roma, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP, Wolfsburg and Wolves.
Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig sit with United on a 8% chance of winning after also dropping out of the Champions League on Matchday Six and Inter sit behind on 7% after being knocked out of Europe’s top competition by Barcelona on Tuesday.
Arsenal’s chances are equal to that of Wolves and Roma whilst Scottish sides Celtic and Rangers are both ranked at having a 1% chance of winning and there’s less than a 50% chance for either to make the last 16.
